RESEARCH in WHATEVER FIELD...?

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Rohiniranjan
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RESEARCH in WHATEVER FIELD...?

Post by Rohiniranjan » Wed May 28, 2014 6:07 pm

SERMON for today! <LOL>

We all, whether seriously and sincerely into astrology and truly dedicated, or those who use it for entertainment or sometimes "passing our time" (known in indian parlance as "time-pass", or still others who are only interested in getting a reading for solving their current or ongoing Karmic-Anguish, now that it has clamped its teeth on a certain part of their anatomy (not literally!) seem to all have fallen in love with this tantalizing term RESEARCH which is often just relegated to remain a half-hearted search, at least in Jyotish Realm, as I see it!

Haste makes waste, they say and Persistence Pays, are the two adages that we all must begin to take really seriously, because without keeping those in mind, no progress can truly be achieved.

Research seems to have been conducted much more thoroughly by western astrologers perhaps because many of them came from psychology fields and so had a better understanding, training and appreciation of statistical and other biases and potential flaws that are inherent in demographic research, which essentially is what astrological research (any school) falls in. Observing and trying to see meaningful patterns in a large number of humans with similarities and differences, often more or less randomly distributed. Well, searches which are carried out on a smaller scale too suffer from similar problems, although in general those tend to amplify due to a type of error known to statisticians which is dependent on sample size. Then there are sampling biases, subjective biases, systemic and systematic biases and these and similar mostly in even those that are sincere and serious about their search (research), whether in astrology or whatever! There are also deliberately and sometimes subconsciously introduced "errors" sometimes due to underreporting, sometimes innocense, and hopefully not other inner drives and motivations.

We continue to see examples of those daily on internet and the NOISE that gets generated that squelches the SIGNAL we set out to seek! But the biggest enemy, even more than INTENT is time! The same old TIME that grips us all, including the meditating ones that remain in society or similar others.

So what constitutes research or even a search?

I- A carefully selected hypothesis must first be there, and it must be based on a simple premise which at least makes sense and conforms to the fundamental basis of the subject of search. It takes time to mull over and clean up the hypothesis until most fat is gone and only meat remains (and the vegetarian analogy of same thought!)

II- Then one must run a pilot test in a small sample. The sample can be dirty but must not be flawed (flaws introduced innocently or deliberately). At this early stage, it is okay to discard obviously flawed samples (nativities in our context) early if possible or during and after the testing. Cautious (re)searchers maintain an inventory of such just in case they are needed later as knowledge grows!
Next one must revisit the hypothesis, particularly if more complex, to simplify it for further testing.

III- After a few pilot tests have been carried out, given that we are looking at a rather heterogeneous human population and not machines produced by a factory where parameters of production are pretty much set and easily defined and less VARIABLE than those encountered in BIOLOGY (humans, human societies that are subjects of any demographic research, including ASTROLOGY!), and hypothesis and testing-flaws potential or accidental are better understood, the SEARCH phase is done, more or less!

IV-NOW, research begins and ideally the hypothesis must not change from this point onwards, nor the methodology, or else we are deliberately opening the pandora's box of uncertainties, a veritable quicksand for researchers! A monkey's scrabble, a dog's breakfast!

Gauquelins, are probably the single instance of how astrological research must be carried out. But they are not alone! Some of the institutes in India had also been carrying out research though in diminishingly growing numbers. I am talking about Research in Astrology ONLY, of course!

The Phase IV must involve much larger numbers and diverse so that randomization bias does not bite the researchers in their 'KETU' ;-)

It requires a team of dedicated and honest to a fault individuals and huge resources and fully dedicated time! Hence, at least in astrology no matter where one is shall remain a pipe-dream! Now astrology is not considered a serious or essential pursuit by the government and funding agencies, and for that matter not even by many astrologers, high, medium or low. Health Care, scientific innovations remain more attractive and even in those the governments, benefactors, industry has started diminishing funding and support. World peace, military, wasteful green energy projects seem more important and of questionable efficacy, globally. Diseases once considered eradicated or controlled seem to be coming back and more energy goes now into revaccination, reeducating parents and folks to not resist the health dangers that lurk ahead! Human beings continue to remain recalcitrant to the adage: Prevention is better than cure (or similar) and the rise of alternative therapies, arise uncontrolled and uncontrollably. Despite food going to wastebins, the other side of the globe still has people and little children in particular, going unfed and many dying of hunger for lack of food and clean water!

I can understand how in such a reality that surrounds and more looming ahead, there is a general growing apathy towards astrology or its research, utilization and promotion by governments, funding agencies, and even astrologers and astrophiles!

Will that change Karma: Individual, families, communities, provinces and states, nations, VASUDHA and its KUTUMBA? Or the understanding of Karma at least which should be possible through astrology...? At least so it seems in our isolated experiences...!

Love, Light, Reality!

Rohiniranjan
Rohiniranjan
========
JYO-LOGUE

mysbcrs
Posts: 342
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 4:55 pm

Re: RESEARCH in WHATEVER FIELD...?

Post by mysbcrs » Fri May 30, 2014 4:28 am

Rohiniranjan wrote:SERMON for today! <LOL>

We all, whether seriously and sincerely into astrology and truly dedicated, or those who use it for entertainment or sometimes "passing our time" (known in indian parlance as "time-pass", or still others who are only interested in getting a reading for solving their current or ongoing Karmic-Anguish, now that it has clamped its teeth on a certain part of their anatomy (not literally!) seem to all have fallen in love with this tantalizing term RESEARCH which is often just relegated to remain a half-hearted search, at least in Jyotish Realm, as I see it!

Haste makes waste, they say and Persistence Pays, are the two adages that we all must begin to take really seriously, because without keeping those in mind, no progress can truly be achieved.

Research seems to have been conducted much more thoroughly by western astrologers perhaps because many of them came from psychology fields and so had a better understanding, training and appreciation of statistical and other biases and potential flaws that are inherent in demographic research, which essentially is what astrological research (any school) falls in. Observing and trying to see meaningful patterns in a large number of humans with similarities and differences, often more or less randomly distributed. Well, searches which are carried out on a smaller scale too suffer from similar problems, although in general those tend to amplify due to a type of error known to statisticians which is dependent on sample size. Then there are sampling biases, subjective biases, systemic and systematic biases and these and similar mostly in even those that are sincere and serious about their search (research), whether in astrology or whatever! There are also deliberately and sometimes subconsciously introduced "errors" sometimes due to underreporting, sometimes innocense, and hopefully not other inner drives and motivations.

We continue to see examples of those daily on internet and the NOISE that gets generated that squelches the SIGNAL we set out to seek! But the biggest enemy, even more than INTENT is time! The same old TIME that grips us all, including the meditating ones that remain in society or similar others.

So what constitutes research or even a search?

I- A carefully selected hypothesis must first be there, and it must be based on a simple premise which at least makes sense and conforms to the fundamental basis of the subject of search. It takes time to mull over and clean up the hypothesis until most fat is gone and only meat remains (and the vegetarian analogy of same thought!)

II- Then one must run a pilot test in a small sample. The sample can be dirty but must not be flawed (flaws introduced innocently or deliberately). At this early stage, it is okay to discard obviously flawed samples (nativities in our context) early if possible or during and after the testing. Cautious (re)searchers maintain an inventory of such just in case they are needed later as knowledge grows!
Next one must revisit the hypothesis, particularly if more complex, to simplify it for further testing.

III- After a few pilot tests have been carried out, given that we are looking at a rather heterogeneous human population and not machines produced by a factory where parameters of production are pretty much set and easily defined and less VARIABLE than those encountered in BIOLOGY (humans, human societies that are subjects of any demographic research, including ASTROLOGY!), and hypothesis and testing-flaws potential or accidental are better understood, the SEARCH phase is done, more or less!

IV-NOW, research begins and ideally the hypothesis must not change from this point onwards, nor the methodology, or else we are deliberately opening the pandora's box of uncertainties, a veritable quicksand for researchers! A monkey's scrabble, a dog's breakfast!

Gauquelins, are probably the single instance of how astrological research must be carried out. But they are not alone! Some of the institutes in India had also been carrying out research though in diminishingly growing numbers. I am talking about Research in Astrology ONLY, of course!

The Phase IV must involve much larger numbers and diverse so that randomization bias does not bite the researchers in their 'KETU' ;-)

It requires a team of dedicated and honest to a fault individuals and huge resources and fully dedicated time! Hence, at least in astrology no matter where one is shall remain a pipe-dream! Now astrology is not considered a serious or essential pursuit by the government and funding agencies, and for that matter not even by many astrologers, high, medium or low. Health Care, scientific innovations remain more attractive and even in those the governments, benefactors, industry has started diminishing funding and support. World peace, military, wasteful green energy projects seem more important and of questionable efficacy, globally. Diseases once considered eradicated or controlled seem to be coming back and more energy goes now into revaccination, reeducating parents and folks to not resist the health dangers that lurk ahead! Human beings continue to remain recalcitrant to the adage: Prevention is better than cure (or similar) and the rise of alternative therapies, arise uncontrolled and uncontrollably. Despite food going to wastebins, the other side of the globe still has people and little children in particular, going unfed and many dying of hunger for lack of food and clean water!

I can understand how in such a reality that surrounds and more looming ahead, there is a general growing apathy towards astrology or its research, utilization and promotion by governments, funding agencies, and even astrologers and astrophiles!

Will that change Karma: Individual, families, communities, provinces and states, nations, VASUDHA and its KUTUMBA? Or the understanding of Karma at least which should be possible through astrology...? At least so it seems in our isolated experiences...!

Love, Light, Reality!

Rohiniranjan
RR ji,

Nice pointers to someone who is keen on doing serious search/research at least for the first time.

I would also like to add (sub-sermon? :) ) .

1. It is important to distinguish causation and correlation
2. While the intention may obviously be to see positive results, it is very important to go into negative ones. Very often they are the real nuggets.
CRS

Rohiniranjan
Posts: 7470
Joined: Sun Jun 11, 2006 8:11 pm
Location: N.A.

Re: RESEARCH in WHATEVER FIELD...?

Post by Rohiniranjan » Fri May 30, 2014 5:08 am

mysbcrs wrote:
...

Nice pointers to someone who is keen on doing serious search/research at least for the first time.

I would also like to add (sub-sermon? :) ) .

1. It is important to distinguish causation and correlation
2. While the intention may obviously be to see positive results, it is very important to go into negative ones. Very often they are the real nuggets.
No, these points are valid. #1 is the basic golden rule of statistics. NYSE stocks were seen to climb up and down in near-perfect correlation with the spawning of sperm-whales. They were obviously correlated but with no causal link! HEHE, that example read in university during statistics classes kind of stayed with me. I might still have that wonderful dark blue hardcover book, with me! This is essentially why I go on like a parrot, that planets simply indicate, they do not actually CAUSE our bounties or miseries B-)

#2 ofcourse is even more deadly fault! It is called subjective bias and particularly important during and as we get close to the phase IV (see last message). We are essentially in the quest of testing the NULL Hypothesis with these astrological tests. Neither positive nor negative are our friends. Researcher must be like the ideal jury, sitting in line with the fulcrum of the SEE-SAW and see which way the TULA (scales) tips! Not to be confused with the TIPS we give or get when good service is involved in a restaurant and other places! <LOL> This is exactly why I mentioned about keeping a document of cases which seemed faulty or had to be discarded, just in case with further testing, they become meaningful. Ideally, at the phase IV when the hypothesis is ripe and ready, unless the subject dies or something, a participant must not be discarded from the study! <Sorry, I was watching a macabre movie today, about Hannibal!> :-(
Rohiniranjan
========
JYO-LOGUE

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